Despite The Knot, Inc.
(KNOT:
sentiment,
chart,
options)
outpacing the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 62% during the past 40 trading sessions, the wedding market services website fell victim to a downgrade today. Brokerage firm Susquehanna got down on 1 knee and said, "I don't," downgrading the shares from "positive" to "neutral." The news comes just a day after the company announced that 2008 was a record-breaking year for new registered members.
Investors seem to be brushing off the downgrade, as the stock has walked down the aisle today to add nearly 1.5%. Furthermore, the stock has tacked on 70% since the beginning of November, rising along its 10-day moving average.
However, brokerage firms don't seem to be fans of free cake and champagne. According to Zacks, the stock harbors 7 "hold" or worse ratings, and just 3 "buy" or better ratings. Additionally, the stock's average 12-month price target is docked at $8.00, as reported by Thomson Financial. This price target represents that brokerage firms expect the shares to drop 11% from Monday's closing price in the next year. This configuration shows there is plenty of room for upgrades and upward price-target revisions, should the bearish analysts get cold feet.
Further evidence of abundant pessimism comes from the shorts. Short interest is extremely high on KNOT, especially for an uptrending stock. These bears have sold short more than 2.31 million shares, accounting for more than 8.52% of the company's float. With the stock in an uptrend, if these pessimistic investors begin to divorce their losing positions, it could take more than 8 days at the stock's average daily trading volume for these bets to unwind. This could provide ample fuel for a short-covering rally.
It looks like the shares aren't going to drop like bridesmaids fighting over the bouquet. From a contrarian perspective, the advancing stock prices, combined with the bearish sentiment, has bullish implications.
Copyright Schaeffer's Investment Research http://www.schaeffersresearch.com