The shares of AT&T
(T:
sentiment,
chart,
options)
could be hit with some selling this morning after Bernstein Research reported that it expects slower wireless growth and a "relatively worse" wireline telecom performance in 2009, while cutting its ratings on telecommunication giants T and Verizon Communications Inc (VZ). The brokerage cut Verizon to "underperform" from "market perform" and AT&T to "market perform" from "outperform."
"We believe the TelCo stocks have come too far, too fast. With strong Q4 outperformance, the sector has traded as a strong defensive/staple. But the sector is more appropriately viewed as a late-stage cyclical, in our view," analyst Craig Moffett wrote in a note to clients.
"AT&T and Verizon may indeed be somewhat more recession-resistant than most business. But we believe they are nevertheless much more cyclically exposed than consensus estimates (and valuations) would suggest," said Moffett, who cut his price target on AT&T to $27 from $35 and on Verizon to $27 from $32.
The shares of T have been grinding higher from their near-term low of $20.90 set in mid-October. The stock has created a series of higher lows, gaining more than 40% along the way. However, the security is facing staunch resistance at the 30 level. This round-number level has capped the shares since the start of October.
Traders are already skeptical of the shares of T. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio for T stands at 0.96, which is higher than 86% of all those taken during the past year. This indicates that short-term options speculators have been more bearishly aligned toward the stock just 14% of the time during the past year.
However, there is still ample room for downgrades. T has earned 12 "buy" ratings and 6 "holds," according to Zacks. Any additional downgrades could spell trouble for the shares.
Copyright Schaeffer's Investment Research http://www.schaeffersresearch.com