High-End Retailers Feel the Pinch: Tiffany & Co. In Focus

Tags: TIF
13 Jan 3:46am
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Last week, my mother alerted me to some more grim news coming in as the global economy deteriorates. Ireland-based Waterford Wedgwood filed for bankruptcy, and the company today said it would cut 367 jobs at 2 UK subsidiaries under its administration. Although my mother claims that my sister (Kathleen) and I are not named for Waterford crystal patterns, I couldn't help but notice her email with an article attached last week that read, "oh no... our glasses! Maybe I should have named you Fiesta."

As I spent the weekend writing a thank you note for a recent gift of a Waterford wine glass in the Colleen pattern, I began thinking of other high-end retail stores that may be feeling the pinch amid these hard economic times.

Today, Tiffany & Co.'s (TIF: sentiment, chart, options) has seen more than 15,080 puts cross the tape. This number is more than 8 times its average daily volume. Additionally, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) is docked at 2.92, indicating that puts nearly triple calls among options slated to expire within 3 months. This ratio comes in at an annual pessimistic peak, meaning that at no other time during the past 12 months have short-term option players been more bearishly aligned.

As a contrarian, I look for uptrending stocks with a lot of bearish sentiment for my bullish picks. Unfortunately, Tiffany & Co. is showing little promise. The equity has trailed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 12% during the past 60 trading sessions, but brokerage firms, according to Thomson Financial, are still expecting the stock to rally 41% during the next 12 months.

The security has fallen below its 10-week moving average. This trendline had acted as support from March through June 2008, but could now switch roles to act as resistance in the near term.

From a contrarian perspective, while option traders are clearly pessimistic, brokerage firms are not. If the stock is unable to make some serious progress on the charts, it could see bearish brokerage actions, pushing it even lower.


Copyright Schaeffer's Investment Research http://www.schaeffersresearch.com

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SchaeffersResearch

Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.