After digging around the annals of the Internet last night, I ran across more speculation regarding Apple's
(AAPL:
sentiment,
chart,
options)
"special event." Most of the sites I ran across held the same expectations for a redesigned iPod nano and a revamped iPod Touch, though iLounge went over the top with supposedly leaked schematics for the new devices. Meanwhile, Engadget has pictures of a sport case for a fourth-generation iPod nano - with the talked-about long body style. And if that wasn't enough, Forbes has an excellent article on what they are expecting from Apple's little soire, complete with iPod price cuts.
But there is a real contrarian takeaway to this rising speculation, and it lies in the options pits. Specifically, call open interest is on the rise for AAPL shares, and this could have negative implications for the security. On Monday, Elizabeth Harrow reported that AAPL's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) rested in the 94th percentile of its annual range. Today's reading of 1.01 has fallen to the 84th percentile, as calls are added at a faster rate than puts.
What's more, according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), AAPL's 10-day ISE put/call ratio has plunged from Monday's reading of 0.70 in the 80th percentile to today's perch at 0.57 in the 51st percentile of all those taken during the past year. ISE data has particularly bullish implications due to the fact that this volume is all bought to open - indicating an increase in long call positions ahead of the event.
Traders should keep a close eye on this options activity. If expectations get too out of hand (i.e., call volume continues at its current pace), we could see a "sell on the news" event with AAPL shares on September 10.
Copyright Schaeffer's Investment Research http://www.schaeffersresearch.com