Can an Upgrade and a 'Gustav Bounce' Propel Cabot Oil?

Tags: CBT
30 Aug 12:02am
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Earlier this morning, J.P. Morgan upgraded chemical and material maker Cabot (CBT: View sentiment for CBTsentiment, chart, options) to "overweight" from "neutral." The brokerage made the move thanks to the belief that CBT has reached a "cyclical bottom." In addition, J.P. Morgan believes that raw material costs have reached a relative peak, which will still impact CBT's fourth-quarter margins CBT's price increases are contractually delayed by a quarter. CBT stated that 2009 should prove "materially better," as raw materials have begun to decrease in price and it finished-product prices have increased.

As oil boils thanks to concerns over the hurricane potential of Gustav (or Katrina II as the media may make us believe), CBT has enjoyed a nice 4-day run capped by today's 1%-plus move. However, let's not turn a blind eye to CBT's horrendous long-term performance. During the past 52 weeks, the stock has shed 31%. Furthermore, the equity's recent rally has met with resistance at its descending 10-month moving average. CBT has not closed a month atop this trendline since June 2007 and the streak seems as if it will continue through today.


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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.