Checking Back in on Big Lots

Tags: BIG
27 Aug 2:21am
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In this morning's Opening View, my colleague Andrea Kramer took a look at the earnings announcement from Big Lots (BIG: View sentiment for BIGsentiment, chart, options) . To review, the retailer reported earnings of 32 cents per share, a nickel better than the consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $1.1 billion, in line with estimates. Second-quarter sales increased 2.8%. Looking forward, BIG upped its fiscal-year forecast to $1.90 to $2 per share, up from $1.80 to $1.90 per share. Analysts expect BIG to post earnings of $1.90 per share.

With all of this good news, why is BIG more than 5% lower this afternoon? The company announced that its same-store sales for the rest of the year would likely trail those from the first half. The company's executives noted that it wasn't selling a lot of clothing, which is a key category during back-to-school shopping. In addition, there will be fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, as Turkey Day falls later on the retail calendar. This combination has the stock trading lower.

However, short sellers could have a hand in the drop. Roughly 54% of the stock's float is sold short, so we know that short sellers are already pessimistic. The stock could be fighting further short-selling, which could serve to push the shares lower. If the bears continue to add to their positions, it could be a long afternoon for BIG.

That said, the fact is that the retailer is set up for a nice push higher. BIG continues to receive support from its 20-week moving average, which it has not closed below since January. Should the stock rebound, we could see the shorts try to buy back their pessimistic positions. Should the shorts get squeezed, we could see the stock advance. Of course, that could have happened today, but the short sellers weren't intimidated by BIG's same-store sales news ... it's all about timing.


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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.