Who's Buying Yahoo? RiskMetrics Group Has an Idea, and It Isn't Pretty

Tags: YHOO
10 May 4:07am
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I think we may finally have an answer to this week's million-dollar question: "Who is buying Yahoo?" According to Chris Young, director of M&A research at RiskMetrics Group, "Unsubstantiated market rumors have run rampant in recent days that unnamed activist funds are accumulating Yahoo shares, with a view to doing precisely what unsatisfied vanilla investors will not do -- lead an opposition campaign at Yahoo's upcoming annual meeting." Young made the remarks in an article over at MarketWatch.

After plunging more than 10% immediately following the company's rejection of Microsoft's (MSFT: sentiment, chart, options) increased bid of $33 per share, Yahoo! (YHOO: sentiment, chart, options) shares have reclaimed about 6% of that decline. If Young is correct, it would put the recent strength in YHOO shares in a new light. Gone are the prospects that the company's last earnings report (which topped expectations by 2 cents per share) is responsible for the equity's rise. Personally, I thought the earnings and forward-looking comments theories were a bit unrealistic, given that YHOO is up more than 35% from their pre-Microsoft-bid levels.

Regardless, the stock is now hitting long-term resistance in the 26 region, doubled by its declining 10-day moving averages. And while investor sentiment may be extremely bearish - Zacks.com reports that 17 of the 24 analysts following YHOO rate the shares a "hold" or worse - I can't see any reasons for these pessimistic investors to change their tunes. In fact, with shareholder battles and fights concerning the company's board members clearly on the horizon, YHOO's situation may get even darker before we get anywhere near the dawn.


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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.