Triumph Group (TGI) Triumphant in Fourth-Quarter Earnings

Tags: TGI
3 May 3:39am
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Aircraft-parts manufacturer Triumph Group (TGI: sentiment, chart, options) soared more than 17% higher today, after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and boosted its 2009 guidance. For the quarter, TGI logged a profit of $21.3 million, or $1.26 per share, on a continuing-operations basis. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.04 per share. Looking ahead, the company placed 2009 earnings at $4.85 to $5.05 per share on revenue of $1.25 billion to $1.35 billion. Wall Street is currently targeting a profit of $4.95 per share on revenue of $1.28 billion.

Ahead of the report, investors were extremely bullish toward TGI. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.21 indicates that calls nearly quintuple puts among near-term options. However, the stock has not been optionable for long enough to garner an annual percentage rank. Meanwhile, Zacks.com reports that all 9 analysts following TGI rate the stock a "strong buy." That's quite a bullish outlook, but that didn't stop Stifel Nicolaus from reiterating its "buy" rating and boosting its price target to $105 per share. TGI currently trades near $70-$71 per share.

Only short sellers were betting against the equity, and they are surely feeling the heat today. Despite a 1.8% decline in the number of TGI shares sold short in the most recent reporting period, nearly 16% of the stock's float is sold short. A short-squeeze situation following last night's earnings report may be contributing to today's surge.


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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.