I am starting to see that old familiar hype when it comes to Apple
(AAPL:
sentiment,
chart,
options)
once again. This time, the speculation is swirling around the company's much anticipated 3G iPhone. The new iPhone boasts an impressive speed increase over its EDGE-network predecessor. As for the hype, tech blogs from TechCrunch to Engadget have jumped on the unavailability of iPhones on Apple's website, speculating that we "might be seeing a next-gen iPhone in the next few days," according to TechCrunch, or that the release "is a whole heck of a lot closer than we could've imagined," per Engadget.
Analysts have even chimed in on the 3G iPhone's release date, with Piper Jaffray stating that it believes the release of the new Apple-engraved device is "imminent," with an announcement expected in mid-June. I'm not sure that mid-June is "imminent" in the technology realm, but the speculation is still having an impact on AAPL shares today.
Technically, AAPL is once again within striking distance of the 200 level, a region that soundly rebuffed the shares in late December. But will the shares form a double top and be rejected once again, or is the second time a charm for AAPL? While Wall Street is heavily bullish on the stock, and short sellers have shied away from AAPL, options players have expressed a bit of healthy apprehension. Currently, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.92 indicates that calls and puts are nearly in parity among near-term options. What's more, this reading ranks above 58% of all those taken during the past year.
However, AAPL's open interest configuration indicates that peak call open interest resides at the 200 level in the May, June, and July series of options. The approximately 92,000 calls open at the 200 strike in the front-3 months of options represents about 13% of all near-term call open interest, and could be a sign of elevated expectations.
The bottom line: if the hype gets much more exaggerated, AAPL buyer beware.
Copyright Schaeffer's Investment Research http://www.schaeffersresearch.com