Ford (F) Motors Higher Despite 12% Decline in April Auto Sales

Tags: F
2 May 3:54am
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Pessimism among investors is par for the course in the automotive sector, but it seems that the market can only tolerate so much negativity. Take General Motors (GM), which is rallying back after reporting a 16.2% decline in light-vehicle sales. However, shares of GM's leading Detroit competitor, Ford (F: sentiment, chart, options) , are up nearly 3% following its own monthly sales report. For April, F announced that sales retreated 12.2% to 200,727 cars and trucks. Truck sales plunged 18.3%, while cars fell 1% to 79,913. There were bright spots for the company, though, as the new Focus compact saw sales spike 43.5% from a year ago, while Fusion sedan sales rose 22.4%.

With crude prices - and thereby gasoline prices - hitting record levels, the decline in SUV and truck sales comes as no surprise. However, F is beginning to make inroads with its Focus and Fusion cars. The company is far from Toyota's (TM) numbers, but it seems to have an edge on GM due to the ongoing restructuring by CEO Allen Mulally.

Technically speaking, F continues to defy the skeptics. The shares have rallied more than 71% since mid-March along the support of their 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The stock has taken out former resistance at the 8 level, and appears poised to challenge its near-term high in the 9 region in short order. What's more, there is ample gas in the tank to push F above this overhead resistance. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.35 ranks above 92% of all those taken during the past year, and short interest accounts for more than 12.5% of the stock's total float.

And, if analysts get involved, there is also room for upgrades from the brokerage bunch. According to Zacks.com, 10 of the 11 analysts following F rate the shares a "hold" or worse. An unwinding of this heavy pessimistic sentiment could provide additional buying power for F, thus sending the shares steadily higher.


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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.