Brokerage firm Goldman Sachs (GS: sentiment, chart, options) warned this morning that crude oil prices could fall as low as $30 per barrel in the first quarter of 2009. "The global credit crunch... now threatens to push oil prices below $40 a barrel in the near term as the impact of the global economic recession has swung the oil market from pricing demand destruction in 2008 to pricing supply destruction in 2009," said the firm in a note to clients.

Goldman thinks oil prices will hit bottom within the next 3 months, but stated its belief that a price near $30 will be necessary to drive production cuts and producer shut-ins. For the first half of 2009, the firm has a price target of $35 per barrel; for the full year, GS expects oil at $45 per barrel. Goldman expects oil prices to march into triple-digit territory again by 2012 as demand slowly ramps back up.

If it seems like just 7 months ago that Goldman Sachs sounded the alarm about oil at $200 per barrel -- well, it was. Back in May, the brokerage firm predicted a "super spike" in crude costs, citing "the world's seemingly unquenchable thirst for oil." What a difference half a year can make...